BIG IMPACT :The electric vehicles sales are blowing up, the accumulation in variable energies start the first real approach with stationary lithium batteries and consequently the demand of batteries and lithium raw material will show big impact over the forecast of the analysts
Jaime Alée 28.06.2018
After years working on these issues I decided to write my own independent report based on my opinions supported on expert experience and using a new methodology that tries to get away from the influence of many other reports on circulation and press and magazines opinions related with the issue . Also try to include in numbers the unexpected "techno-geo-political" events in our era.
I started in April, just published some serious data reports from the 2017 results. After months of intense work, I finished a week ago the " ESK Outlook 2017-2025 Demand of Lithium, Batteries and Battery Dependent Appliances (BDA)" (80 ps). The results were amazing, and I checked them repeatedly. I finally published the report one week ago, and I wish to anticipate some amazing results
More than one million electric cars were sold on 2017, almost double the 2016, most of them were full electric at the expense of the hybrids. The fully electric buses also shot over the 100,000 units/year (ten times the prognosis from 4 years ago), almost all sales are registered in China. According to our forecast, on year 2020 could reach the magic figure of 3 million of units of full electric vehicles sold/year and the end of the transition vehicles plug-in. In 2025 are reached over 8 million electric vehicles sales that year.
Also, 2020 could initiate a new era of the stationary batteries in applications on the electrical grid with 6 GWh installed that year. At 2025 we anticipate an explosion in that incipient market with 97 GWh installed that year. The star will be the self-generation installations in households or small communities ( Off-Grid or On-Grid solutions), with 78 of the 97 GWh, reaching the 5 million of micro-grids involved. That it´s over that batteries in electric cars this year.
¿Do you know that nearly 10 million off-Grid installations (Solar Island solution) now installed in the most underprivileged communities of Africa and Asia providing independent electrical service without services from electric companies? ¿Do you know that Puerto Rico are right now part of an experiment with TESLA to providing energy solutions using PV and batteries On-Grid to support the electric grid company's inability to recover it after last year's hurricane?... a trigger?
Conclusion, around 2025 we would be reaching close to 800 GWh demanded in lithium batteries that year, enough to provide electricity for a full month to a city of ¡2.6 million homes!
This implies a demand of 793 Kton of LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) that year , more than three times the robust current demand of about 250 Kton.
… Report 80 pages with tens of curves and inedits details by each segment analized , dowload free summary with more curves and analysis..
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